Bob Baffert trained Authentic upset Tiz the Law to win the 220 Kentucky Derby. There’s no rest for Authentic to make it two Triplecrown races in a row. However the great Tiz the Law horse and winner of the Belmont will not be racing in the Preakness Stakes for Saturday, October 3. You can also visit our Online Racebook to place your bets on active racetracks.
Preakness Stakes Horse Racing Odds, Picks and Preview: Authentic for 2 Straight Victories
2020 Preakness Stakes
- When: Saturday, Oct. 3
- Where: Pimlico Racecourse, Baltimore, MD
- Weather: Sunny
2020 Preakness Stakes Odds
- Excession 30/1
- Mr. Big News 12/1
- Art Collector 5/2
- Swiss Skydiver 6/1
- Thousand Words 6/1
- Jesus’ Team 30/1
- NY Traffic 15/1
- Max Player 15/1
- Authentic 9/5
- Pneumatic 20/1
- Liveyourbeastlife 30/1
Preakness Stakes Race Analysis
In our early Preakness article, we chose Authentic over Swiss Skydiver, Art Collector, and NY Traffic. That was before some owners and trainers decided to enter. Now that we know exactly who is running, we’ve changed our picks.
Before getting to our top four, let’s talk about how the race will run. To beat Authentic, you must take a big chance. Even though Authentic ran fast early in the Derby, no horse was there to challenge him. If Tiz the Law had gone up to Authentic before the first turn, instead of waiting until the top of the stretch, the Belmont winner may have beaten Authentic.
With that in mind, and if we want to beat the favorite, we must look for a horse that has enough speed to stay close and with an aggressive enough jockey to make an early move on the Derby favorite. That horse’s name is Penumatic.
Top Pick: Pneumatic 20/1
The Steve Asmussen trainee has never run a bad race. Even his Belmont Stakes try can’t be considered a bad run. Sure, he finished 7 ¾ lengths behind Tiz the Law. But the son of Uncle Mo and a Tapit sired broodmare, Teardrop, went 3 to 4 wide around the first turn and 5 wide around the final turn. It was also Pneumatic’s fourth lifetime race. He had a reason to tire in the stretch.
Horses improve big time from month-to-month their three-year-old season. Pneumatic won the Pegasus Stakes in August. He ran a speed rating that makes him a challenger in this. Asmussen has two Preakness wins under his belt with Curlin and Rachel Alexandra. Steve put some great works into this guy leading up to this.
Also, jockey Joe Bravo is known as a speed jock, meaning he’ll make sure Authentic doesn’t get too far in front of him. Expect a massive effort from the 20/1 shot.
Second Choice: Authentic 9/5
Bob Baffert’s Derby winning beast has failed just once in 5 lifetime starts. Authentic lost the Santa Anita Derby when running second behind Honor A.P. If you study that race, you’ll realize that he broke slow, went 3 wide, and then drifted in the stretch. What really happened? Jockey Drayden Van Dyke and Baffert tried to get Authentic to rate. He didn’t like that.
Authentic runs best when he can get the lead. He doesn’t want to see horsesin front of him. Expect jockey John Velasquez to use the same tactics in the Preakness that he used in the Derby. Johnny V. will gun Authentic to the front. If Joe Bravo aboard Pneumatic, who breaks next to Authentic, doesn’t go with the Derby winner, the race could be over. Authentic will go home first in the Preakness just like he did in the Derby.
Third Choice: Swiss Skydiver 6/1
Jockey Robby Albarado picks up the call on Kentucky Oaks second-place finisher Swiss Skydiver. Although Tyler Gaffalione gave the Oaks runner up a decent chance to win that Grade 1 race, trainer Kenny McPeek may want a more aggressive ride in the Preakness.
When Swiss Skydiver runs close to the lead, she’s tough to beat. She won the 1 ¼ mile Alabama Stakes at Saratoga after grabbing a 3 length lead at the second call. She could absolutely win the Preakness if Authentic and Pneumatic go after each other early. The key for Albarado will be gauging if he should engage those two likely front-runners from the gate or lay off and hope the Derby winner slows down before the final turn.
Fourth Choice: Art Collector 5/2
The Thomas Drury trainee has won 5 straight. Because of that, he deserves the low second choice odds. But let’s not kid ourselves. Winning the Blue Grass Stakes in July doesn’t compare to winning a Triple Crown race in October.
Drury had Art Collector primed for a Derby run. Unfortunately, he came up with a small injury. Horses don’t always recover even from small injuries. Also, the best horse he beat is Swiss Skydiver. Art Collector got the perfect trip in that after Skydiver carved out 6 furlongs in 1:10.3.
There are some things to like about Art Collector. He comes into this off an injury, has never faced a field this deep, and could be in a tough position breaking to the inside of Swiss Skydiver, Thousand Words, Ny Traffic, Authentic, and Pneumatic.
There’s also a chance he gets overplayed due to the shiny record. Art Collector is a must use in the superfecta. Be careful about backing him to win at the likely low odds, though.
Which horses at +2000 odds or less have the best chance of upsetting the favorites?
Thousand Words scratched in the Derby paddock. The horse has the ability to win a Triple Crown race. Bob Baffert wouldn’t enter Thousand Words into the Preakness unless he felt the horse could win.
With the right trip, Mr. Big News, the third place finisher in the Kentucky Derby, could take the blackeyed-susans. The Preakness is a shorter race than the Derby. That could help Mr. Big News. He made a menacing move around the Derby’s final turn but couldn’t sustain it. If he makes the same move around Pimlico’s tighter final turn, he might catch the front runners.
There are all sorts of reasons to like Mystic Guide. Godolphin owns, Michael Stidham trains, and Guide won the Grade 2 Jim Dandy in his last. The Ghostzapper sired runner can close from the clouds or press the pace. He has a chance on Oct. 3.
What longshots at +2500 odds or more can upset the likely Preakness field?
Happy Saver won the Federico Tesio Stakes, the prep for the Preakness. The horse also runs for trainer Todd Pletcher and is undefeated after three races. He deserves a long look at +2500 odds.
If Tap It to Win goes, he’ll be another +2500 contender to consider. Mark Casse won the 2019 Preakness with War of Will. Tap It to Win did all the running in the Belmont Stakes before fading to fifth in the stretch. Since then, he’s finished second in the 7-furlong Grade 1 H. Allen Jerkens Stakes and third in the Grade 2 Pat Day Mile.
Casse could have Tap It to Win coming up to his very best race. If Casse enters Tap It to Win, we can’t discount for the victory at massive odds.